Update: weather, production, quality and logistics

Weekly banana market dashboard based on the Fyffes WK23 material: weather impact, regional quality updates, shipping plan and spot price overview.

Wk 23, 2026
July 2026 · Outlook 2026/27

Impact of the banana supply under SUPER NIÑO

Presentation summary from the El Niño banana outlook: a very strong Pacific warming scenario can shift wind and rainfall patterns, create drier and hotter Pacific-facing origins, increase humidity in Caribbean origins and raise supply, quality and planning risk for H2 2026.

Download original PPTX
Super Niño sea surface temperature and climate outlook visual Weather models proof evidence of a Super Niño 2026/2027 Multiple El Niño signals and strengthening into winter 2026/27 are expected to intensify regional climate disruption across LATAM.
NOAA/CPC estimate63%Probability of a very strong El Niño for Nov–Jan.
Pacific anomaly+2.0° / +3.7°CVery strong sea surface temperature anomaly scenario.
Caribbean seaaround -1°CCooler Caribbean surface supports a Thermal Dipole effect.
Chiquita context6,000 haRemain uncultivated; restart harvesting takes more than 1 year.

El Niño vs La Niña: production mechanics

Measurements are based on water surface temperature along the Equator line, monitored between Australia and the Americas and compared with the historic average.

  • El Niño: temperature increases from the average, causing warmer surface water and changing ocean-atmosphere interaction.
  • La Niña: temperature decreases from the average, producing colder Central and Eastern Pacific surface temperature.
  • Moderate events: temperature variation around +1.0°C / -1.0°C is monitored as a key threshold.
  • Operational impact: wind, rainfall and temperature patterns shift across LATAM and other production areas.
El Niño ocean temperature visual from the presentation La Niña ocean temperature visual from the presentation

Super Niño evidence and expected disruption

The outlook highlights the possibility of one of the strongest El Niño events in the last 30 years, with models indicating further strengthening into winter 2026/27.

  • Fruit-growing conditions have already been under pressure from recurring El Niño and La Niña patterns.
  • The Pacific warming combined with cooler Caribbean water may create a pronounced Thermal Dipole.
  • Expected outcomes include shifted wind and rainfall patterns, drier Pacific-facing origins and excessive rain/humidity in Caribbean origins.
NOAA CPC and Super Niño outlook evidence visual

Impact on banana production regions

Impact will vary by topography, microclimates and the actual El Niño evolution. The presentation calls out supply uncertainty, search for fruit in South and Central America and reputational pressure.

  • Chiquita supply uncertainty as they search for fruit in South and Central America.
  • 6,000 hectares remain uncultivated.
  • Restart harvesting takes more than one year after return to farm practice.
  • Conditions may vary significantly by production origin and microclimate.
Banana production region map detail
Banana production impact detail

Climate impact — H2 2026

The productive impact by origin is not homogeneous. Dry zones and wet zones carry different agronomic and operational risks.

  • Dry zones: higher risk on shooting, filling, weight and grade.
  • Wet zones: greater phytosanitary, operational and quality pressure.
  • Origin-by-origin climate risk outlook should guide agronomic actions and customer planning.
Very HighCritical pressure
HighSignificant pressure
ModerateWatch condition
OpportunityFavorable condition
Zone / Origin Expected production impact
● Belize
  • Lower leaf emission, slower shooting, poor bunch filling.
  • Risk of low grade if irrigation is insufficient. Longer cycle if stress is prolonged.
● Guatemala Pacific
  • Water stress reduces vegetative growth, delays leaf emission, lower bunch weight.
  • Higher risk of short/low-grade fruit. Lower Sigatoka but higher mite/thrip pressure.
● Nicaragua
  • Lower vigor, delayed shooting, longer cycle, reduced bunch filling.
  • Risk of heat-sensitive fruit and reduced water availability.
● Santa Marta
  • Major impact on shooting and bunch filling. Reduced exportable bunches, longer cycle, lower grade gain, thin fruit risk.
  • Wind event amplifies volume and timing losses.
● Costa Rica Caribbean
  • High Sigatoka pressure, reduced fungicide effectiveness due to wash-off.
  • Delayed field operations, reduced root aeration, drainage issues, lower vigor, longer cycle.
● Panama
  • High Sigatoka, soil saturation, functional root loss, field operation delays.
  • More defective fruit, longer cycle. Possible productivity reduction from waterlogging.
● Ecuador
  • Higher Sigatoka, drainage issues, operational delays.
  • More disease/pest pressure.
● Urabá
  • Potential improvement in vigor, leaf emission, shooting, and bunch filling.
  • Moderate Sigatoka risk if humidity rises, but relative opportunity vs. other origins.
Weather & fruit condition

Weather impact in fruit condition

Monitoring by origin shows recovery in some areas, while Colombia Santa Marta and Urabá remain important watch points for grade, curvature and Sigatoka pressure.

El Niño impact on banana production

  • Strong El Niño event developing, with Pacific temperatures potentially reaching +3.5°C above normal.
  • Changing weather patterns increase drought and rainfall risks across growing regions.
  • Bananas face smaller fruit, lighter bunch weights and greater disease susceptibility.
  • June–October remains a critical period for elevated production risk.
El Niño effect map and banana production impact

Impact of Weather in Fruit Condition 2026

HTML version of the weather matrix from the second slide. Green = good grade / low curvature, yellow = reduction in fruit grade, red = low grade / high curvature.

Arrival week 13141516171819202122232425
Packing week 10111213141516171819202122
Dom. Rep
Belize PMS
Belize BGA
Guatemala Sur
Guatemala Norte
Honduras
Nicaragua
Costa Rica
Panamá
Colombia-Urabá
Colombia-Santa Marta
Ecuador
Peru
Good grade, low curvature — Finger box < 105 Reduction in fruit grade is moderate — Finger box 105-110 Low grade, high curvature — Finger box 110-120

Climatic Conditions

Colombia-Urabá is slowly recovering grade and improving Sigatoka conditions.

Colombia-Santa Marta (Bonasan) remains with low-grade gain and Sigatoka pressure.

Banana plantation weather context

Operational table explaining how weather deviations can influence production and fruit condition.

Weather factor Optimal / reference Current risk interpretation Fruit / production impact
Rainfall ≈ 52mm per week Watch Too much or too little rain affects fruit growth, bunch weight and harvest consistency.
Humidity Stable humidity, no prolonged excess Risk High humidity increases disease pressure, especially Sigatoka risk in sensitive regions.
Sunlight Balanced sunlight during growth Watch Low sunlight can slow development and affect fruit size, grade and filling.
Temperature No extreme heat or cold stress Stable Temperature stress can increase curvature, reduce grade and impact shelf performance.
Disease pressure Controlled through monitoring High focus Requires enhanced monitoring, farm controls and packing inspections to maintain consistency.
Regional quality

Country updates

Key messages and customer outlook summarized from the weekly quality deck.

Colombia, Santa Marta

Reduction in the fruit grade & fruit curvature increasing
✦ Key messages
  • ✓Seasonal weather conditions and increased disease pressure have created additional quality challenges in some production areas.
  • ✓Comprehensive quality improvement programs have been implemented across farms and packing facilities.
  • ✓Enhanced monitoring, auditing, and product identification procedures have been introduced to improve consistency.
  • ✓Dedicated workstreams continue to focus on maintaining product quality and reducing variability throughout the supply chain.
☼ Customer outlook
Continuous improvement measures are expected to deliver progressively stronger quality performance in the coming weeks.
Source slide visual: quality process / label control
Source slide visual: packing references

Colombia, Urabá

Reduction in the fruit grade & fruit curvature increasing
✦ Key messages
  • ✓Fruit development has been influenced by recent weather patterns, resulting in variability in fruit size, grade, and packing characteristics.
  • ✓Additional quality controls have been introduced to improve packing consistency and specification compliance.
  • ✓Weight monitoring, packing inspections, and process adjustments are delivering gradual improvements.
  • ✓Enhanced oversight continues throughout harvesting, packing, and shipment preparation.
☼ Customer outlook
Ongoing quality initiatives are expected to further improve product consistency and compliance with customer specifications.
Source slide visual: banana carton / fruit inspection
Source slide visual: sizing and calibration

Costa Rica

Good grade & low curvature
✦ Key messages
  • ✓Seasonal weather conditions continue to influence fruit development and increase disease pressure in some growing areas.
  • ✓Additional field monitoring and harvesting controls have been implemented to maintain fruit quality and consistency.
  • ✓Enhanced packhouse supervision and targeted inspections are helping to identify and manage variability at source.
  • ✓Ongoing collaboration between farm and quality teams supports continuous improvement across the supply chain.
☼ Customer outlook
Quality teams remain closely engaged in both field and packing operations to ensure consistent market performance.

Ecuador

Grade, curvature and packing consistency under monitoring
✦ Key messages
  • ✓Ecuador remains a major banana export origin and an important supply reference for the market.
  • ✓Weather variability can influence fruit development, grade, bunch weight and packing consistency.
  • ✓Disease and pest pressure require continuous farm monitoring and preventive field controls.
  • ✓Packhouse controls should stay focused on grade, curvature, calibration, weight and customer specification compliance.
☼ Customer outlook
Quality performance should remain under weekly review. Consistency will depend on weather stability, field controls and packhouse execution.
Logistics

Shipping update

Vessel arrivals and fruit availability summary

Port logistics

Port operations

Logistics overview for container handling and terminal readiness.

Loading vessel schedule...

Selected European ports export view, weeks 10–22

Only these selected ports are shown for now: Dunkerque, Amberes, Rotterdam, Vlissingen, Hamburgo, Bremerhaven, Gdansk, Gdynia and Klaipeda.

Selected European ports

Selected ports by week

Weekly 22XU Boxes and Containers for only the selected ports, kept in the exact order requested.

Loading selected port chart...
Week Containers DUNKERQUEAMBERESROTTERDAMVLISSINGENHAMBURGOBREMERHAVENGDANSKGDYNIAKLAIPEDA
Week 101 371 2381 041.0959 20053.0 Containers252 862237.0 Containers306 261294.0 Containers255 0838.0 Containers188 926172.0 Containers120 927110.0 Containers12 27611.0 Containers126 738112.0 Containers48 96544.0 Containers
111 154 387874.094 3204.0 Containers182 883175.0 Containers296 457281.0 Containers240 06018.0 Containers206 057195.0 Containers43 45239.0 Containers2 2682.0 Containers125 604111.0 Containers53 28649.0 Containers
121 617 2281 275.08109 28498.0 Containers281 667271.0 Containers331 803319.0 Containers249 5201.0 Containers228 094214.0 Containers234 373210.0 Containers00.0 Containers126 754112.0 Containers55 73350.0 Containers
131 118 202822.0914 60413.0 Containers218 607211.0 Containers242 539232.0 Containers252 7241.0 Containers207 555201.0 Containers38 00635.0 Containers10 2069.0 Containers89 31679.0 Containers44 64541.0 Containers
141 013 222718.07105 09294.0 Containers93 15691.0 Containers308 766293.0 Containers257 33415.0 Containers123 440114.0 Containers00.0 Containers00.0 Containers115 390102.0 Containers10 0449.0 Containers
151 460 8911 116.0850 19045.0 Containers310 533298.0 Containers227 904218.0 Containers283 73022.0 Containers162 268152.0 Containers253 814228.0 Containers00.0 Containers125 604111.0 Containers46 84842.0 Containers
161 256 299941.0700.0 Containers276 775265.0 Containers299 918279.0 Containers270 76430.0 Containers177 018161.0 Containers47 98543.0 Containers00.0 Containers130 140115.0 Containers53 69948.0 Containers
171 425 0531 091.0841 48237.0 Containers325 048310.0 Containers209 971199.0 Containers262 21818.0 Containers162 339148.0 Containers262 997236.0 Containers00.0 Containers109 69297.0 Containers51 30646.0 Containers
18994 559730.0762 79056.0 Containers86 97990.0 Containers247 086234.0 Containers241 38617.0 Containers182 618174.0 Containers32 22029.0 Containers00.0 Containers141 480130.0 Containers00.0 Containers
191 426 680909.0942 48838.0 Containers291 887279.0 Containers207 338203.0 Containers257 46811.0 Containers143 432131.0 Containers79 09271.0 Containers217 7947.0 Containers138 096125.0 Containers49 08544.0 Containers
20594 620327.0653 58048.0 Containers83 51180.0 Containers90 46185.0 Containers245 0224.0 Containers38 52635.0 Containers83 52075.0 Containers00.0 Containers00.0 Containers00.0 Containers
21585 669323.0642 44638.0 Containers77 68775.0 Containers97 88892.0 Containers267 98228.0 Containers28 49426.0 Containers71 17264.0 Containers00.0 Containers00.0 Containers00.0 Containers
22543 492277.062 1602.0 Containers80 13877.0 Containers97 02690.0 Containers258 00412.0 Containers20 84419.0 Containers85 32077.0 Containers00.0 Containers00.0 Containers00.0 Containers

Selected port details

Destination totals for selected ports only, not sorted by volume, but shown in the requested order.

Port Country Containers Selected Weeks Peak week ETA port discharge Main vessels
Loading selected port details...

Klaipeda weekly consignee breakdown

KLAIPEDA only: weekly split by consignee/receiver with 22XU Boxes, Containers, brands and estimated arrival week. ETA week is calculated as export week + 5 weeks based on 35–40 days average transit time. Total for KLAIPEDA: 413 611 22XU Boxes · 373.0 Containers · 7 consignees · weeks 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19.

Week Estimated arrival week Consignee / receiver 22XU Boxes Containers Brands
Loading KLAIPEDA breakdown...
ECUADOR Spot market

ECUADOR SPOT Price for 22XU USD/box

Date Spot Price Difference
08.06.2026$6,00-0,50 ⌄
06.06.2026$6,50-0,30 ⌄
05.06.2026$6,80-0,20 ⌄
04.06.2026$7,000,00 ●
03.06.2026$7,000,00 ●
02.06.2026$7,000,00 ●
01.06.2026$7,000,00 ●
30.05.2026$7,000,00 ●
29.05.2026$7,000,00 ●
28.05.2026$7,000,00 ⌃

Cost calculation scenarios

Indicative destination calculation based on average Spot Price, export cost, sea freight, exchange rate and local destination charges.

Destination Transit Time FOB / C&F Price T1 / T2 Price
Ecuador - Antwerp22-25 days (average 24 days)FOB: 0.00 USD
C&F: 0.00 USD		T1: 0.00 €
T2: 0.00 €
Ecuador - Hamburg29-32 days (average 31 days)FOB: 0.00 USD
C&F: 0.00 USD		T1: 0.00 €
T2: 0.00 €
Ecuador - Klaipeda36-40 days (average 38 days)FOB: 0.00 USD
C&F: 0.00 USD		T1: 0.00 €
T2: 0.00 €
Formula: FOB = Fruit Price + Export Cost. C&F = FOB + destination Sea Freight. T1 = C&F / Exchange Rate + DTHC + Port Forwarding + Customs Scan. T2 = T1 + Customs Clearance.
Copyright © 2026 Green Earth SIA ( LV50203506201 )- All Rights Reserved.
Green Earth SIA